2010: Another Linux Odyssey - Ubuntu overtakes Linux and Tablets may fly

Next year is going to be an interesting year for Linux. Or is that Ubuntu? This week, Google proclaimed (inadvertently) that Ubuntu would be more popular than Linux. That certainly seems to ring true if you look at the popularity of searches - Ubuntu goes up, Linux goes down. All of the media hype aside, what does this really mean for Linux, or Ubuntu? In the most humble of opinions, the Ultimate Linux Newbie Guide believes that all that is happening is that Canonical LTD, through Ubuntu are making Linux more accessible to the mass population. More and more regular Joe people are using Linux than ever before. Some of these people might not even be aware that they are using Linux. They might be aware that it's Ubuntu and some might be aware only that they have a computer and that it surfs the web (yes, I'm talking about _some_ of you netbook users!).

Prediction #1:Joe User Acceptance of Ubuntu(/Linux/etc)

So 2010 will be the year of the Ubuntu (nee. Linux) Joe User? I'm not going to predict any unweildy stake here and claim that 2010 will be the year of the Linux Desktop, because unless by some miracle Microsoft drops dead and stops stuffing awful software down peoples throats by default, Linux will not reign supreme on the desktop for a good few more years yet. In a technological sense, the Linux Desktop is pretty much there; thanks to the likes of simple distributions like Ubuntu and Linux Mint and the massive uptake of cheap Netbook type computers running Linux, most people will tell you that when they use the Linux desktop on these machines they have little or no problems with the desktop at all. So.. Joe User acceptance of Ubuntu/Linux/Computer thingy thats not running Windows.. definitely, Linux Desktop... not quite yet: We need mass desktop installation of Linux before we can truly claim Linux is 'on the Desktop'. Next year, with Linux about to turn 20, will see much of the general public understanding that there is a competitor to Windows out there other than Apple.

Some mini-predictions for 2010 based around the whole Linux Desktop thing that still bother folks:

• Ubuntu will fix (once and for all), graphics support on the desktop so that both ATI and NVidia people can be truly problem free.
• Audio on the Linux desktop will be rationalised by finally making PulseAudio work as intended. It will run with JACK plugins by default.

Indeed, this stuff is already starting to filter through, but it's not in all distributions yet. Lots of people still need to download the NVIDIA propriatery driver to get their displays working right and lots of people still have problems with audio. These are two big bugbears that just shouldn't exist in this day and age.

Prediction #2 Linux Tablet Reigns Supreme:

Just as 2007/08 was the year of the Linux Netbook, 2010/11 will be the year of the Linux Tablet. Now, before you go saying, "Tablet!! Tablet PC's came and went 5-10 years ago, they sucked!". I'm not talking about that sort of tablet. If you have been watching the industry very carefully recently you will see that the Netbook has downsized even further and companies are coming out with devices that carry a mobile phone SIM, wifi, and some don't even have a keyboard, such as the much rumoured Apple iTablet and the upcoming Nokia N900. The latter has already been showcased and runs Nokia's brew of Linux. It is no stretch of the imagination that when two massive industry players get together, the rest of the world scrambles to catch up and make a cheaper, better alternative. Well, Linux lovers, it's already happening behind the scenes there are scores of companies developing Linux based tablet machines that you can take in a handbag, or a large pocket, some have keyboards, some don't. Some will even have detachable keyboards. All of these units are touted as having the same or similar processing power as the netbooks before them. A lot of the cool kids and media junkies won't just have a smartphone next year, they will have a tablet too. Probably running Linux of some kind.